Alabama
Revenue growth from sales and income taxes to our Education Trust Fund continues to slow from the extraordinary growth levels of 2021 and 2022. general fund growth is largely driven by interest on state deposits currently. Other revenue sources showing modest/low growth. However, due to prudent budget decisions over the last few years, both budgets are in great shape and need zero revenue growth for the remainder of the year to meet current obligations for FY 2024.
Alaska
Stable - despite a structural deficit, the legislature has balanced the budget the past few years by reducing the statutory Permanent Fund Dividend payment. The governor's budget has an approximately $1 billion deficit but the legislature will likely balance the budget.
Arizona
While personal income tax is the primary reason for the downward revision, the state has also experienced a slight decline in corporate income tax collections and weaker sales tax growth than previously expected.
Arkansas
The economy has been more resilient than expected for the first half of FY 2024. While collections have declined, the forecasted values were lower than the actual collections for the period.
California
Due to continued deterioration in revenues, particularly for 2022-23, both our office and the administration have anticipated the state faces a large deficit. We estimate the governor’s budget addressed a $58 billion budget problem. According to our current estimates, it is also relatively likely revenues will come in lower than the administration's projections, which means the budget problem is likely to grow between now and May.
Colorado
Colorado's budget is constrained by our constitutional limit (TABOR). We refunded about 20% of general fund revenue in FY 2022-23 and we're expected to refund at least 15% of current year general fund revenue. The refund requirement means that growth in appropriations will be constrained, limiting opportunities for new government programming. With large Democratic majorities in both chambers, and a Democratic governor, the legislature has been more aggressive in finding creative options to allow programs to grow within or around the constitutional limit.
Connecticut
Our current fiscal situation is stable as we undertake revisions for the second year of our biennium. Our built-in budget cushions have largely served us well.
Delaware
Delaware is in stable financial condition with strong reserves available and revenues projected to hold steady. Delaware continues to proactively manage expenditures through incremental percentage growth in ongoing expenditures, while depositing additional revenues into a stabilization fund for future use. One-time and capital expenditures, paired with federal resources, continue to drive job growth and investment into the state's infrastructure and capital needs.
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
The current year revenue estimate has been revised upward for a total of $37.5 billion and includes $2 billion in unrestricted surplus funds to be utilized for one-time expenses. However, year over year revenue collections have softened.
Hawaii
Stable revenue forecast, but expenses rising quickly due to disaster recovery efforts.
Idaho
Idaho is in an excellent fiscal position. We are structurally balanced over the next three years and both major reserve balances are at their statutory maximum. We have been using ongoing money for one-time projects to maintain this structural balance.
Illinois
Revenues for Illinois' general funds are currently on pace to exceed the revenues assumed for the enacted budget that was passed in May 2023. While a portion of this is due to better-than-expected (albeit modest) tax revenue performance from many State sources (especially from the economically tied revenue sources), the primary reason for the anticipated upward revision is the receipting of several one-time revenue deposits that were not anticipated at the time of the enacted budget, including $633 million from prior-year federal matching of Medicaid dollars and roughly $250 million from excess tax incentive funding that is being transferred back to the General Revenue Fund. As mentioned above, the performance of State sources is expected to slow in the second half of FY 2024, but the actuals from the first half will likely lead to a modest upward revision in several of the State's primary revenue lines. Overall, it has be a solid year for revenues so far through the first half of the fiscal year.
Indiana
FY 2023 revenue met forecast targets after the April 2023 revenue forecast. The December 2023 revenue forecast is projecting slower growth in FY 2024 than projected in the April forecast. Revenue for the first half of FY 2024 is currently exceeding targets. However, it is too soon to tell if the targets will be met. The impacts of federal monetary policy, inflation, labor markets, and spending patterns are still uncertain.
Iowa
Iowa's fiscal situation is strong. Tax reform has started to limit general fund revenue, however projected revenue in the near term is expected to slow minimally, while FY 2024 estimated appropriations are below projected revenue. The continued budget surplus in the general fund has resulted in FY 2024 estimated reserves of approximately $4.625 billion, or 47.5% of projected net revenue.
Kansas
The state of Kansas’ current fiscal health is good. High general fund balances and balances in the budget stabilization fund support long term planning. Additionally, strong commodity prices for agricultural goods as well as several major new capital investments provide a good base for growth.
Kentucky
From a revenue perspective, we are still experiencing growth, but the rate of growth has slowed markedly over the past 18 months compared to the prior 24 months. Growth rates are more near trend-growth rate of 3%.
Louisiana
Louisiana has seen surpluses since FY 19, and post-pandemic revenue projections have been consistently conservative, constraining spending relative to actual collections. Budget and stabilization fund balances are high. However, a number of temporary sales tax provisions expire after FY 25, and the incoming administration & legislative leadership have indicated the intention to attempt reforms aimed at reducing or eliminating personal income taxes and corporate income and franchise taxes in 2025.
Maine
The December 2023 revenue forecast revised the estimate of general fund revenue upward by 2.7% (decreased the prior forecast's decrease) for fiscal year 2024 and by 2.6% for the 2024-2025 biennium. The economic forecast will next be reviewed and updated as needed for the required CEFC Feb. 1, 2024, report and then the revenue forecast for the required RFC March 1, 2024, report. The Legislature's Appropriations and Financial Affairs Committee is expected to receive a 2024-2025 supplemental budget from the governor's office in the next few weeks.
Maryland
In December 2023, general fund revenues were revised downward for fiscal 2025. Additional spending pressures were identified in both fiscal 2024 and 2025 which has resulted in a substantial decline in both the cash and structural outlook for fiscal 2024 and 2025.
Massachusetts
Michigan
Stable: revenues are adjusted slightly, with roughly half due to non-economic fundamentals, e.g., interest rates were high and added interest revenue to our balances. Economic fundamentals are pretty stable.
Minnesota
Minnesota's FY 2024-25 budget is balanced, and the most recent forecast shows the state with an additional $2.4 billion for the biennium. However, the state's budget has been balanced by using carryforward resources from the prior biennium (FY 2022-23). Consequently, the spending projections in FY 2024-25 and FY 2026-27 exceed the biennial revenue projections, resulting in a negative structural balances of $-10.9 billion (FY 24-25) and $-2.3 billion (FY 26-27).
Mississippi
As of Dec. 31, Mississippi is currently over the estimate by $104.3 million and for the month of December is $28.4 million over. There has been a decrease in individual income tax from the first phase of the tax cuts.
Missouri
Montana
The budget is stable since revenues are consistent with expectations and lower than the previous year.
Nebraska
Forecast for FY24 is $6.445 billion. Through December, the state is $630 million above projected. However, last session, LB 754 included a provision that allowed pass-through entities to retroactively file an election to pay taxes at the entity level , required payment of taxes for previous tax years, and allows for a credit based on the pro rata or distributive shares. In the fiscal note for the bill, we were not able to estimate the overall impact of this provision, but there has been a significant increase in estimated payments in December, which we are attributing to this. Because refundable credits are also allowed to members in an amount equal to the pro rata or distributive shares, there is likely to be a significant increase in refunds going forward as well. These credits are available for the tax year that the entity reported and paid the payment. In 2023, there were other major tax provisions enacted as well, reducing PIT and corporate income tax rates over a period of years, which are incorporated into the forecast. Most recent general fund financial status shows about $380 million available funds for the biennium, prior to 2024 session budget adjustments. Next forecast revision is in February.
Nevada
Nevada’s current fiscal situation is healthy. Fiscal year 2023 closed with an unexpectedly large unrestricted general fund surplus due to a combination of revenue collections exceeding projections and expenditures by state agencies being less than budgeted. Accordingly, Nevada carried a large unappropriated general fund balance into FY 2024. The available balance in emergency accounts, such as the state’s general rainy day account and the education stabilization account, are at all-time highs and are at or near statutory caps. While revenue collection in Nevada is forecast at the annual level rather than monthly, revenue collection in fiscal year 2024 so far appears to be on track to exceed projections.
New Hampshire
Overall, revenues are slightly ahead of plan/forecast ($86.3 million). However a closer look at the individual revenues show business profits tax (over plan by $100.6 million), other revenue (significant portion is interest revenue)(over plan by $46.5 million), lottery revenue (over plan by $15.2 million), and interest and dividends (over plan by $14.6 million) are exceeding plan/forecast, offsetting the revenue sources that are below plan - business enterprise tax: $63.8 million below plan; Tobacco tax: $13.2 million below plan; and Real Estate Transfer Tax: $15.1 million below plan. Two of the revenue sources that are exceeding plan are not sustainable revenue sources. The interest revenue (other revenue) will start to diminish as ARPA funds are spent down and Interest and Dividends is set to be repealed Jan. 1, 2025.
New Jersey
The current fiscal situation is stable and does not foreshadow budget retrenchment in the current fiscal year.
New Mexico
After three consecutive years of continuous increases in the state revenue forecast, the December 2023 forecast moderated in advance of the 2024 legislative session. Recurring revenues for FY24 were estimated at just over $12.75 billion, up $157 million from the August estimate and up $1.2 billion from estimates a year earlier. FY 25 recurring revenues were estimated at just over $13 billion, down slightly from the prior forecast as revenues return to prepandemic trends and tax cuts go into effect. “New money,” or projected recurring revenues for the following fiscal year less current year recurring appropriations, was estimated at almost $3.5 billion for FY25, representing 36.4 percent growth from the FY24 recurring budget.
New York
North Carolina
General fund revenue collections through December 2023 were $122 million, or roughly 1%, above target for the first six months of the fiscal year. However, most of the revenue forecast’s risk and volatility reside in the second half of the year, so it's hard to predict with confidence how revenue will fare for the rest of the fiscal year.
North Dakota
Overall positive - Revenues exceeding estimates and no spending surprises.
Ohio
Wage withholding for the state income tax performed well, but nonwage income is below estimate and offsetting withholding performance. The auto portion of the sales tax is negatively affecting the overall sales tax, but the non-auto portion is doing well enough to fully offset the negative impact of automobiles. Ohio does not levy a corporate income tax. Instead, businesses pay a gross receipts tax, which is on target through the first six months of the state fiscal year. State spending is broadly below estimate, especially Medicaid, due in part to lower than projected caseloads.
Oklahoma
Oregon
During the long legislative session that concluded in June 2023, the Legislature adopted a budget for the 2023-25 biennium totaling $121.3 billion, a decrease of $4.5 billion (or 3.6%) from the 2021-23 legislatively approved budget. The decrease is primarily attributable to a lower level of federal funds expenditures compared to the prior biennium, which included considerable one-time federal funding provided to help offset the economic and other impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined general fund and lottery funds of $33.5 billion increased 17.2% over the prior biennium, continuing a trend of biennial double-digit growth in general fund and lottery funds expenditures. The adopted budget assumed a general fund ending balance of approximately $443 million (or 1.4% of general fund expenditures). Quarterly revenue projections for the current biennium have increased general fund revenues by $655 million above the level forecasted in May 2023 when the 2023-25 budget was adopted, resulting in an estimated ending general fund balance of $1.1 billion. This balance supports the 1% deposit to the rainy day fund ($318.7 million) and is available for additional spending in the upcoming 2024 session and/or be retained for the next biennium.
Pennsylvania
The enacted budget for FY 2023-24 assumes that expenditures will exceed revenues by roughly $1.3 billion and relies on the prior year ending balance to offset the current year deficit. The general fund and reserve fund balances are enough to offset projected near-term structural imbalances.
Puerto Rico
As of November 2024, the general fund revenues are 23% higher than FY 2024 forecast and 19% higher than the same period in FY 2023. The expenditures are expected to be within forecast.
Rhode Island
Cautiously stable. Current year revenue were revised slightly upward in November. FY 2025 revenue growth is positive but less than expected baseline cost growth.
South Carolina
Our economists are anticipating an overall decrease in total revenue in FY 24, however, our anticipated growth rate has changed from (3.6%) in our May forecast to (1.6%) in our November forecast so we may not be slowing as much as we originally thought. As of November, total gross revenue is running 5% ahead of the November 2023 estimate.
South Dakota
While certain revenue sources are growing more slowly than usual as inflation comes down, other one-time revenue has filled in the gaps.
Tennessee
Our state sales tax returns are still above what was estimated initially; however our privilege tax and F&E taxes are underperforming resulting in an under collection in our general fund revenues currently. As of our November returns (the most recent) we are $202 million under-collected in our general fund.
Texas
While revenue growth is expected to slow relative to the 2022-23 biennium it is still expected to remain positive. Texas is currently forecast to finish the current 2024-25 budget cycle with an $18.3 billion GR balance and a $23.8 billion balance in the state's main reserve fund, the Economic Stabilization Fund.
Utah
While the last few years of astronomical growth may paint current available revenue in a lackluster light, in reality we have returned to stable, moderate growth. Investment income is outperforming previous expectations and but we are seeing moderating trends in sales tax. Utah's current labor force participation, job growth, and unemployment rates, along with increasing consumer sentiment, underscore a sound fiscal outlook.
Vermont
Vermont is in a good fiscal situation generally, but will be navigating the return to the slower rates of revenue growth it experienced pre-COVID. The general fund and the education fund are above or on track. The transportation fund revenues are below expectations, which will create some challenges in the future.
Virginia
Washington
The state's current fiscal situation is stable, but for risks to FY 2025 and beyond based on the fate of initiatives upcoming on the November 2024 ballot. Washington experienced dramatic growth over the past few years, and that growth has more recently returned to a much more modest level. There are ballot initiatives in November that will impact the operating and capital budgets if passed regarding capital gains (a potential loss to the state's general fund of about $500 million/FY) and cap and invest auction revenues (which does not directly impact the state general fund but that indirectly impacts it since there will be pressure on lawmakers to continue funding programs begun with auction revenues).
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Strong
Wyoming
Revenue forecasts for the current fiscal year include robust sales and use taxes and investment income compared to prior years. However, revenue from energy commodities (severance taxes, federal mineral royalties, state royalties, and ad valorem taxes) are on pace to be approximately one-third lower than FY 2023 collections.
Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, winter 2024.
